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09 March 2018

Statistical trends offer valuable insights

When comparing year over year numbers for February 2018, one should take into account the never-before-seen prices and volumes experienced in Toronto’s February 2017 real estate market - perhaps not the most insightful interpretation method. The more valuable insights are found in an analysis of how the market is trending. Setting aside the anomaly that February 2017 was, compared to February 2016, February 2018’s average price represents an annualized increase above the inflation rate for the past two years. 6% annualized growth over two years is statistically a strong market. Prices and sales volume in February were up from January 2018 and December 2017 and the strongest increase we’ve seen since June 2017 when the market began to digest government introduced cooling measures.  Despite the increase in active listings, an absorption rate calculation indicates there is 2.8 months of inventory. By industry standards, this is considered a fast, seller’s market, with the likelihood to push prices up as we head into the spring market.


07 February 2018

January 2018 Market Stats

January 2018’s Toronto housing market is reflecting the measures taken by various levels of government to cool escalating home prices and consumer debt. At this time last year, we were in the midst of a housing price spike driven by exceptionally low inventory, which should be recognized when making comparisons to January 2017. However, prices for January 2018 showing a more modest growth consistent with the last half of 2017 coupled with an increase in inventory, may be a hopeful sign for buyers who have been shut out of the market for lack of product. The Ipsos research quoted in TREB’s 2018 Market Year In Review & Outlook Report indicates that 74% of likely buyers in the GTA think they will still qualify for a mortgage at the 2 percentage points higher than the posted five year fixed rate, as required under the new OSFI stress test rules.


06 January 2018

December  2017 Market  Stats

There were 92,394 home sales reported through the TREB MLS in 2017. Annual home sales were down 18.3% from a record-setting 2016, but the average price climbed up 12.7% compared with 2016. While sales have fallen for seven months since May, the GTA has seen signs of recovery in the past few months, with sales in December having the smallest monthly decline since the introduction of the 15% foreign home-buyer tax and the Ontario Fair Housing Plan in April.


06 December 2017

November 2017 Market Stats

December 6, 2017

November 2017 has provided us with another interesting set of stats for the Toronto Real Estate Board MLS. Most notable is the average selling price for all home types in the GTA down 2 per cent compared to a year ago. However, as price increases in November 2016 were at an anomalous 22.7% over the previous year, a 2% drop suggests only the slightest of adjustment in the direction of affordability.


02 November 2017

October stats pointing to stronger market conditions in the GTA

November 2, 2017

Residential sales showed an above-average unit sales increase between September and October 2017 of almost 12%, but sales are down 27% from the same month last year. Condominiums were a key driver of both this increased number of sales and an overall 2.3% increase in selling price for October transactions compared to October of 2016. A recent Urbanation report forecasts that 2017 will set a new record for condo sales in the GTA with 12,000 units becoming available this quarter, pushing total sales to 34,000, up from 27,000 in 2016.